Radford's Optimisation Boosts Fuel Treatment
Douglas Radford of Adelaide University used multi-objective optimisation to boost fuel treatment plans by 80-280 % in a study published in 2025.
Douglas Radford of Adelaide University used multi-objective optimisation to boost fuel treatment plans by 80-280 % in a study published in 2025. The research, focused on the Adelaide Hills, shows that tailored decisions can reduce wildfire risk while meeting community objectives.
Decision Options
Decision makers face a range of fuel-management tools: prescribed burns, mechanical reduction, grazing, or herbicide application. Each option, or a combination, must align with community goals and available resources. The choice of method depends on local priorities and the trade-offs between effectiveness, cost, and environmental impact.
Optimisation Approach
Radford’s PhD work applies multi-objective optimisation to identify where and how prescribed burning should be deployed to lower burn probability. The computational “metamodel” evaluated thousands of treatment scenarios across a large area. The optimisation produced solutions that improved effectiveness by 80-280 %.
| Improvement Range | % Increase |
|---|---|
| 80 % | 80 % |
| 280 % | 280 % |
Radford emphasised that a “good” decision hinges on how objectives are defined and how trade-offs are negotiated. While algorithms can map optimal solutions, the process of working with communities to define what “good” looks like remains values-based and cannot be outsourced. The study’s supplementary data are now available on the stats page.
Case Study Results
The Adelaide Hills case study demonstrated the method’s practical impact. By running extensive simulations, the team identified treatment plans that significantly reduced wildfire risk while respecting diverse community objectives. Radford noted that the approach is flexible enough to adapt to various objectives and constraints, making it applicable beyond South Australia.
Future Applications
Beyond South Australia, the tools are already being trialed in New South Wales. A chance meeting at the IAWF Fire Behaviour and Fuels conference in Hobart sparked discussions about applying the optimisation framework in Canada. Radford expressed excitement about expanding the method to other contexts.
The paper, titled “Optimising fuel treatment plans to reduce burn probability: the importance of navigating context, priorities and trade-offs,” was awarded joint winner of the Best Student Paper 2025 in the International Journal of Wildland Fire. The award announcement is listed in the standings section. Community engagement sessions that shaped the study are documented on the squad page.
