Atlantic Hurricane Season Quietest Since 1941
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is the most tranquil since 1941, with only five short-lived tropical storms and no hurricanes so far.
The Atlantic Ocean has produced just five short-lived tropical storms and no hurricanes in 2026, making this the quietest season since 1941. Record-breaking wind shear and a stable atmosphere, driven by a strong El Niño, are suppressing all storm development.
Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University's annual seasonal forecast, said the models show anemic storm development for the next ten days. "We're crushing all sorts of shear records this year," Klotzbach told the Insurance Journal. His two-week outlook for the statistical peak of the season, around September 10, gives a 97 percent chance that activity will remain well below average.
Factors Suppressing Storms
Wind shear is the primary force preventing hurricanes from forming. This occurs when winds blow at different speeds or directions at various altitudes, which can tear apart developing storms. A stable atmosphere is also suppressing the tropical waves that move west from Africa. These waves typically carry the thunderstorms that become hurricanes.
Both conditions are linked to the current strong El Niño climate pattern. El Niño promotes increased wind shear across the Caribbean and causes sinking, stable air over the central Atlantic.
Measuring Seasonal Activity
Beyond counting storms, forecasters use a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) to gauge a season's intensity. It combines the longevity and energy of all storms. Phil Klotzbach reported the current ACE for the 2026 season is just 4.4. That is the lowest figure recorded since 1941. The 1941 season had only six storms, but they were more ferocious than any generated so far this year.
The five tropical storms of 2026 have all been weak and short-lived. Their details are shown in the table below.
| Storm Name | Duration (Days) | Maximum Wind Speed |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur | 2 | Not specified |
| Cristobal | 2 | Not specified |
| Dolly | 2 | Not specified |
| Edouard | 3 | 50 mph (80 km/h) |
| Bertha | 5 | 50 mph (80 km/h) |
Both Edouard and Bertha, the longest-lasting storms, produced maximum winds of 50 miles per hour and brought heavy rain to the Texas coast.
Implications and Outlook
The tranquil season is good news for millions of residents along the US East Coast, Gulf Coast, and Caribbean islands. It also means fewer potential disruptions for the oil and gas export terminals that line the Gulf of Mexico.
Despite the record-quiet start, forecasters believe at least one hurricane will likely form before the season ends. "Of course, I'm sure we'll eventually at least get one hurricane this year," Klotzbach said. He added that given the forecast for persistently strong shear, any hurricane is more likely to develop in the subtropical Atlantic than in the deep tropics where most major storms originate.
